000ABNT20 KNHC 022306TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Edouard, located inland over eastern Texas.Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.$$Forecaster Katz/Hagen

Tropical Depression Tropical

• Summary for Tropical Depression Edouard (AT5/AL052026) ...Corrected for 'remnants' of Edouard to Tropical Depression... ...EDOUARD WILL CONTINUE TO CONTINUE TO ADD HEAVY RAINFALL TO FLOODED AREAS ACROSS EAST TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY... As of 10:00 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 the center of Edouard was located near 32.2, -95.7 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.

Tropical Depression Edouard

• Tropical Depression Edouard Public Advisory Number 11 Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026 ]]>
• Tropical Depression Edouard Forecast Advisory Number 11 Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 510 WTNT25 KWNH 030310 TCMAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL052026 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 95.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 95.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 95.5W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 32.7N 96.2W...INLAND MAX WIND 15 KT...GUSTS 20 KT. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 95.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER GALLINA]]>
• Tropical Depression Edouard Forecast Discussion Number 11 Issued at 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026 493 WTNT45 KWNH 030311 TCDAT5 Tropical Depression Edouard Discussion Number 11 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL052026 1000 PM CDT Wed Sep 02 2026 Rainfall forecasts for the United States can always be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php For a list of rainfall observations and wind reports associated with Edouard, see the companion storm summary at WBCSCCNS5 with the WMO header ACUS45 KWBC or at the following link: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html. Key Messages: 1. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will continue near the center of Edouard for the next several hours. 2. Heavy rain bands from Edouard will persist over east-central Texas into Thursday morning before becoming more scattered by midday Thursday. Flash flooding, including additional significant flash flooding, is expected over the Piney Woods area of eastern Texas. Isolated moderate to major river flooding is expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 32.2N 95.7W 20 KT 25 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 32.7N 96.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...INLAND 24H 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gallina]]>
• Tropical Depression Edouard Graphics

000ABPZ20 KNHC 022308TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Karina, located well east of the Hawaiian Islands, on Hurricane Lowell, located several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands, and on Tropical Storm Marie, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:An area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico over the weekend or early next week. Gradual development is possible during the early to middle part of next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and is likely to remain well offshore of Mexico.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.$$Forecaster Evans/Hagen

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Karina (EP1/EP112026) ...KARINA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... As of 5:00 PM HST Wed Sep 02 the center of Karina was located near 19.3, -134.7 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 947 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 130 mph.

Hurricane Karina

• Hurricane Karina Public Advisory Number 27 Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 030235 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Karina Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 500 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026 ...KARINA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 134.7W ABOUT 1325 MI...2135 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Karina was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 134.7 West. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and a west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A slow weakening trend is forecast the next few days, followed by a more steady rate of weakening. Karina is likely to remain a hurricane the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb (27.97 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Evans/Hagen]]>
• Hurricane Karina Forecast Advisory Number 27 Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 030235 TCMEP1 HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 134.7W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB EYE DIAMETER 20 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT.......100NE 80SE 100SW 110NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 134.7W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 134.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 20.1N 137.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.6N 139.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 90SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.1N 141.2W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.8N 142.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.7N 143.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 24.6N 145.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 50SW 90NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 26.1N 149.7W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 134.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN]]>
• Hurricane Karina Forecast Discussion Number 27 Issued at 500 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 030239 TCDEP1 Hurricane Karina Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112026 500 PM HST Wed Sep 02 2026 Latest infrared satellite imagery of Karina suggests that convective cloud-top temperatures continue to warm. Karina continues to maintain an annular appearance, while the eye remains cloud-filled. The latest TAFB subjective Dvorak intensity estimate held steady from 18z to 00z, at 5.5/6.5 or 127 kt. Objective intensity estimates from CIMSS vary around 105-110 kt. Given the warming cloud-top temperatures over the last several hours, the initial intensity estimate was adjusted down slightly to 115 kt. Karina is currently moving west-northwestward around 9 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of Karina should cause the cyclone to continue moving west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Karina is then expected to turn more northwesterly later this week as the subtropical ridge is weakened by an oncoming upper-level trough. Karina's track forecast was nudged slightly to the east of the previous forecast, reflecting a blend of HCCA and GDMI. Models exhibit relatively strong agreement in Karina's track through the first 48 h, before spread increases thereafter. While vertical wind shear is expected to remain very weak over the next 48 h, Karina is expected to track toward cooler SSTs and into a drier mid-level environment. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows a slightly faster rate of weakening than the previous forecast, but still lies at the high end of the guidance envelope for the first 3 days, and then closer to the intensity consensus at days 4 and 5. The hostile environmental conditions should cause Karina to lose its convection and become post-tropical by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.3N 134.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.7N 136.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 20.1N 137.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.6N 139.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 21.1N 141.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 21.8N 142.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.7N 143.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 24.6N 145.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 26.1N 149.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Evans]]>
• Hurricane Karina Wind Speed Probabilities Number 27 Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 610 FOPZ11 KNHC 030236 PWSEP1 HURRICANE KARINA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112026 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KARINA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 115 KTS...130 MPH...215 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 135W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 135W 50 94 X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) 20N 135W 64 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) 20N 140W 34 X 6( 6) 55(61) 7(68) 1(69) X(69) X(69) 20N 140W 50 X X( X) 21(21) 9(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 140W 64 X X( X) 10(10) 5(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 32(43) 3(46) 25N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 1(16) 25N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 25N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) $$ FORECASTER EVANS/HAGEN]]>
• Hurricane Karina Graphics
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2026 03:21:56 GMT ]]>

Hurricane for

• Summary for Hurricane Marie (EP3/EP132026) ...MARIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM MST Wed Sep 02 the center of Marie was located near 18.4, -113.1 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Hurricane Marie

• Hurricane Marie Public Advisory Number 8 Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026 409 WTPZ33 KNHC 030246 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Marie Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026 ...MARIE BECOMES A HURRICANE AND CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.4N 113.1W ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Marie was located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 113.1 West. Marie is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). This motion should continue through tonight followed by a turn more west-northwestward for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Friday. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by this weekend. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Katz/Hagen]]>
• Hurricane Marie Forecast Advisory Number 8 Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 030245 TCMEP3 HURRICANE MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.1W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT.......160NE 160SE 30SW 90NW. 4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 270SW 300NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 113.1W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 112.7W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 19.7N 115.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 10SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...150NE 140SE 70SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 90SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 22.0N 120.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 100SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.9N 123.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 23.4N 126.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 113.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN]]>
• Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 8 Issued at 800 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026 581 WTPZ43 KNHC 030247 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132026 800 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026 The latest infrared satellite imagery shows a burst of convection is attempting to wrap around the center of Marie. This is a moderate amount of improvement over the last several hours, as the hurricane seems to have shaken off the dry air seen earlier. The most recent TAFB subjective Dvorak fix is T4.5/77 kt and the UW-CIMSS objective intensity estimates are in the range of 62-75 kt. Based on the given data for this advisory, the initial intensity has been set to 70 kt making Marie a hurricane. The general motion for Marie is to the northwest at 320/10 kt, and the cyclone is expected to maintain that heading for the next several days as a narrow mid-level ridge located to the north will steer the hurricane off to the west-northwest. During this time, the cyclone should slow down as the ridge gradually weakens. There is still a good amount of cross-track spread that is due to how much an amplified mid-latitude trough, off the western United States coast, erodes the previously mentioned ridge. The current NHC track is similar to the previous track but slightly farther south. This track is still a bit north of the HCCA track. The intensity for this forecast is a little higher than the previous forecast. Given that the hurricane is expected to continue to be in favorable conditions with sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), diagnosed by the SHIPS guidance between 27-29 C, relative humidity around 70 percent, and light wind shear, Marie is likely to continue to intensify. The peak forecast is tricky in this situation due to the potential for Marie to move over the cold wake left by Iselle last week, as these waters may cap the peak intensity. Marie should be crossing the 26 C SST isotherm after 60 h, and weakening is expected to begin in earnest beyond this time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.4N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 19.0N 114.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.7N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.2N 117.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.7N 118.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 21.3N 119.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 22.0N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.9N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 23.4N 126.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Katz/Hagen]]>
• Hurricane Marie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8 Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 213 FOPZ13 KNHC 030246 PWSEP3 HURRICANE MARIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132026 0300 UTC THU SEP 03 2026 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ISLA CLARION 34 74 17(91) 1(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA CLARION 50 12 12(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) ISLA CLARION 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 78 21(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 20N 115W 50 7 77(84) 2(86) X(86) X(86) 1(87) X(87) 20N 115W 64 X 44(44) 3(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) 20N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 25(30) 19(49) X(49) X(49) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) X(13) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 3(13) 1(14) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 14(31) 25N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 25N 125W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER KATZ/HAGEN]]>
• Hurricane Marie Graphics
  
  Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2026 03:33:09 GMT ]]>