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Advisories - Atlantic


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of America
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 
000ABNT20 KNHC 212316TWOAT Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL800 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed Subtropical Storm Josephine, located a few hundred miles offshore of the United States Mid-Atlantic coast.Subtropical Central Atlantic:A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the east-southeast of Bermuda is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during the next day or two while it moves slowly north-northeastward. Upper-level winds are forecast to become too strong for further development by the weekend.  * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.&&Public Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT5.Forecast/Advisories on Josephine are issued under WMO header WTNT25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT5.$$Forecaster Reinhart

Tropical Storm Subtropical

  • Summary for Subtropical Storm Josephine (AT5/AL102026) ...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Oct 21 the center of Josephine was located near 37.4, -69.5 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Josephine

  • Subtropical Storm Josephine Public Advisory Number 1 Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026 000 WTNT35 KNHC 212046 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Subtropical Storm Josephine Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026 ...SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.4N 69.5W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM SW OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Josephine was located near latitude 37.4 North, longitude 69.5 West. Josephine is moving toward the north near 6 mph (9 km/h). The storm should turn northeastward by tomorrow with a large increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, Josephine should move away from the United States and remain south of Nova Scotia and Newfoundland. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected, though Josephine is anticipated to remain a subtropical storm through early Thursday. Further strengthening is likely by late Thursday as Josephine becomes a post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds. Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 415 miles (665 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are possible in gusts along portions of the northeastern United States coast through Thursday. See products issued by your local National Weather Service office for more details. COASTAL FLOODING: Minor to locally moderate coastal flooding is ongoing along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast and will continue through the rest of the week around times of high tide. Please refer to products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office for more information. SURF: Large swells generated by Josephine are affecting much of the eastern seaboard of the United States and portions of Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake]]>
  • Subtropical Storm Josephine Forecast Advisory Number 1 Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026 556 WTNT25 KNHC 212045 TCMAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102026 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026 SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 69.5W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 100NW. 34 KT.......360NE 100SE 130SW 260NW. 4 M SEAS....300NE 150SE 390SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.4N 69.5W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 69.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W...SUBTROPICAL MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 120SE 140SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 150SE 160SW 210NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 60NW. 50 KT... 0NE 70SE 80SW 100NW. 34 KT...350NE 210SE 190SW 220NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 70SW 100NW. 34 KT...410NE 240SE 210SW 270NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 0SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...340NE 210SE 180SW 240NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...150NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.4N 69.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE]]>
  • Subtropical Storm Josephine Forecast Discussion Number 1 Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026 000 WTNT45 KNHC 212047 TCDAT5 Subtropical Storm Josephine Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102026 500 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2026 The non-tropical area of low pressure (Invest AL93) that we have been monitoring this week has acquired enough subtropical characteristics to be considered a subtropical storm. Scatterometer data showed that fronts near the cyclone had dissipated, with a smaller radius-of-maximum wind than yesterday. Additionally moderate-to-deep convection has been organizing near and west of the warm-core center. Thus, advisories have been initiated on a subtropical storm, and 55 kt is shown as the initial intensity based on the scatterometer data. Josephine has been moving slowly northward today as a shortwave ridge passes across the northeastern United States. The storm should accelerate northeastward tomorrow as a mid-latitude trough digs into the Great Lakes and Northeastern United States, taking the system away from the US. By Friday, the low should turn eastward, to the south of Newfoundland. Model guidance is in good agreement on this path, and the new forecast is close to a blend of the global model consensus and the NOAA corrected-consensus aid HCCA. The subtropical storm will likely intensify during the next day or so through a favorable trough interaction while it remains near the north wall of the Gulf Stream. Global models are in good agreement on a band of hurricane-force winds developing tomorrow on the back side of the low as it undergoes extratropical transition. A slow weakening is anticipated by late Friday with the loss of forcing from the trough while the system moves over cold water. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to a blend of the GFS/ECMWF global model solutions. The cyclone should become absorbed in about 4 days within a much larger low over the North Atlantic. Since the coastal wind hazards with this system have been covered for the last several days through non-tropical products issued by local National Weather Service offices, and the system is forecast to move away from the coast, those products will remain in effect until the threat diminishes. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 37.4N 69.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 12H 22/0600Z 38.1N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...SUBTROPICAL 24H 22/1800Z 39.6N 66.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 23/0600Z 41.4N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 23/1800Z 43.3N 56.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 24/0600Z 44.1N 53.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 24/1800Z 44.4N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 25/1800Z 43.5N 37.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake]]>
  • Subtropical Storm Josephine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1 Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026 000 FONT15 KNHC 212046 PWSAT5 SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102026 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JOSEPHINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 22(26) 2(28) X(28) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) 23(57) X(57) X(57) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 41(49) 7(56) X(56) X(56) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 13(20) 4(24) X(24) X(24) EDDY POINT NS 34 X 2( 2) 48(50) 8(58) 1(59) X(59) X(59) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) 30(30) 17(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) SABLE ISLAND 34 X 6( 6) 82(88) 4(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 34(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X 4( 4) 41(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) YARMOUTH NS 34 X 42(42) 12(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) X(54) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST JOHN NB 34 X 7( 7) 8(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) EASTPORT ME 34 X 10(10) 3(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 63 3(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 48 2(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) NEW HAVEN CT 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW LONDON CT 34 15 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MONTAUK POINT 34 63 X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) ISLIP NY 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 10 X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE]]>
  • Subtropical Storm Josephine Graphics
    Subtropical Storm Josephine 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2026 21:23:02 GMT ]]>

Advisories - Eastern Pacific

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook 
725 ABPZ20 KNHC 212319TWOEP Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL500 PM PDT Wed Oct 21 2026For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:Active Systems:The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Vance, located several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico.Western Central Pacific:An area of low pressure is forecast to form near the International Date Line, a few hundred miles west-southwest of Johnston Atoll late this weekend or early next week.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development thereafter while the system moves generally eastward to east-northeastward.* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.&&Public advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO header WTPZ32 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2. Forecast/advisories on Tropical Storm Vance are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.$$Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Vance (EP2/EP222026) ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... As of 3:00 PM CST Wed Oct 21 the center of Vance was located near 9.4, -99.8 with movement W at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Vance

  • Tropical Storm Vance Public Advisory Number 2 Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 212032 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Vance Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM VANCE... ...FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.4N 99.8W ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 730 MI...1170 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Vance was located near latitude 9.4 North, longitude 99.8 West. Vance is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with a turn toward the northwest then north-northwest is expected over the next few days, with a slight decrease in forward speed. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
  • Tropical Storm Vance Forecast Advisory Number 2 Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 212032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 99.8W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 4 M SEAS.... 30NE 0SE 30SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 99.8W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 99.6W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 9.5N 100.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 9.8N 101.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 10.4N 102.1W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT...130NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 11.2N 102.7W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.9N 103.1W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.8N 103.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 14.5N 104.3W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 80SW 130NW. OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.4N 99.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
  • Tropical Storm Vance Forecast Discussion Number 2 Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 212033 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Vance Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP222026 300 PM CST Wed Oct 21 2026 Satellite imagery shows that the system continues to produce deep convection in improved banding features, as depicted in recent microwave images. An earlier scatterometer pass shortly after the previous advisory showed that the low-level center was slightly farther south and had a peak wind of 27 kt. The latest satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS and TAFB are 32-35 kt, and using these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt for this advisory, making the system Tropical Storm Vance. The initial motion is estimated at 265/6 kt. A generally slow forward motion is expected with a turn toward the northwest and then north-northwest as the cyclone is steered along the southern and western periphery of a mid-level ridge located over Mexico. There continues to be some disagreement in the short term over when the turn toward the northwest will occur The GFS and hurricane regional models continue to show a southwest motion, while the HCCA and GDMI show the system slowing and turning sooner. The latest NHC track forecast is closest to the HCCA and GDMI, the best-performing models this season, and was shifted slightly to the right compared to the previous one. Vance is within a conducive environment for steady to rapid intensification (RI), with warm sea surface temperatures near 29-30C, low wind shear, and favorable upper-level divergence. RI SHIPS and DTOPS guidance remains very bullish, showing RI over the next 12-60 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follows suit and the peak intensity was increased slightly from the previous one, although it remains slightly below the GDMI and HCCA aids. In 72 hours, wind shear is forecast to increase and the system will move into a slightly drier mid-level air mass. Thus, a weakening trend is shown at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 9.4N 99.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 9.5N 100.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 9.8N 101.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 10.4N 102.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 11.2N 102.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 11.9N 103.1W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 12.8N 103.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 14.5N 104.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 15.8N 105.2W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly]]>
  • Tropical Storm Vance Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2 Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026 000 FOPZ12 KNHC 212032 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM VANCE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222026 2100 UTC WED OCT 21 2026 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM VANCE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 43(58) 11(69) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 26(28) 10(38) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 7(22) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 15(19) MANZANILLO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MANZANILLO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 10N 100W 34 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) 10N 100W 50 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER KELLY]]>
  • Tropical Storm Vance Graphics
    Tropical Storm Vance 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 21 Oct 2026 21:28:45 GMT ]]>