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Advisories - Atlantic


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 170532
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Humberto, located nearly 600 miles west of Bermuda.

A small low pressure system located a little more than 1000 miles
east of the Lesser Antilles continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  This system has changed little in
organization since yesterday, but conditions are still expected to
be conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the
next day or so while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure over
the northwestern Gulf of Mexico has become a little more
concentrated during the past several hours. Nearby observations
indicate that although pressures are falling in the area, there are
no signs of a surface circulation at this time.  Some slight
development is possible before the system moves inland along the
northwestern Gulf coast Tuesday night.  Regardless of development,
this system is expected to produce locally heavy rainfall and
possible flash flooding along portions of the central and upper
Texas coastal areas later this week.  For additional information,
see products issued by your local weather forecast office and the
Weather Prediction Center.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Humberto (AT4/AL092019) ...LARGE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... As of 2:00 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 the center of Humberto was located near 30.5, -74.7 with movement ENE at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 966 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 90 mph.

Hurricane Humberto

  • Hurricane Humberto Public Advisory Number 18A Issued at 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 688 WTNT34 KNHC 170531 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 18A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019 ...LARGE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.5N 74.7W ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM W OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late Wednesday. RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches expected. SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night. Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Hurricane Humberto Forecast Advisory Number 18 Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 201 WTNT24 KNHC 170232 TCMAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BERMUDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 75.1W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 75.1W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 75.5W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.6N 70.0W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 32.8N 66.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.1N 60.7W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 210NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 40.5N 58.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 43.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 75.1W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane Humberto Forecast Discussion Number 18 Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170232 TCDAT4 Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Humberto continues to have an impressive overall appearance on satellite imagery, although the eye is a bit ragged looking. Earlier radar images from the NOAA P-3 aircraft showed that the eyewall was somewhat fragmented. A last-minute observation of 700-mb flight-level winds of 86 kt from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters, outbound to the west of the eye, is roughly consistent with a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. Humberto should continue to traverse warm waters for the next couple of days, and much of the numerical guidance shows intensification in the short term. Therefore the official forecast, like the previous one, continues to call for the system to become a major hurricane within the next day or so. This is similar to the intensity model consensus. By 48 hours, the shear should become very strong and a weakening trend will likely be underway. By day 5, if not sooner, the ECMWF global model shows the system embedded within a frontal zone so Humberto is forecast to be extratropical at that time. The eye has been wobbling over the past few hours, but a smoothed estimate of the motion is just north of east or 075/7 kt. Humberto should continue to move along the northern side of a subtropical ridge with a gradual increase in forward speed for the next couple of days. After that, the hurricane should turn northeastward and north-northeastward with some additional acceleration in response to a strong mid-tropospheric trough near Atlantic Canada. Around the end of the forecast period, the global models differ significantly as to how far north into the Atlantic Humberto will move. The official forecast leans toward the ECMWF and corrected consensus, HCCA, guidance. It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the right could bring the center near or over the island. Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by late Tuesday, and affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 30.3N 75.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 31.6N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 32.8N 66.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 37.1N 60.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 40.5N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 43.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch ]]>
  • Hurricane Humberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18 Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 200 FONT14 KNHC 170232 PWSAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE HUMBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE RACE NFLD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) ILE ST PIERRE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) ILE ST PIERRE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) SYDNEY NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) SYDNEY NS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 4(24) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) 4( 4) 72(76) 19(95) X(95) X(95) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 27(27) 28(55) X(55) X(55) BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) X(25) X(25) $$ FORECASTER PASCH ]]>
  • Hurricane Humberto Graphics Hurricane Humberto 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 05:31:25 GMT

    Hurricane Humberto 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 03:25:09 GMT ]]>

Advisories - Eastern Pacific

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 170506
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located over the southwestern part of the basin.

Showers and thunderstorms remain limited in association with a
well-defined area of low pressure located about 650 miles
south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico.  Any significant increase in
the thunderstorm activity would lead to the formation of a tropical
depression later today or tonight, while the disturbance moves
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the large area of
low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast of
Acapulco, Mexico, is becoming better organized.  If this development
trend continues, then a tropical depression or tropical storm could
form later today or tonight.  This system will continue to move
west-northwest near or just offshore of the coast of Mexico for the
next few days.  Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Disorganized cloudiness and showers near and just west of Central
America are associated with a tropical wave.  Gradual development of
this system is possible during the next several days while the wave
moves westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.  Locally heavy
rainfall is possible along the coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala
and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Hurricane for

  • Summary for Hurricane Kiko (EP3/EP132019) ...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of Kiko was located near 17.2, -124.4 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 982 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Hurricane Kiko

  • Hurricane Kiko Public Advisory Number 19 Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 170233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Kiko Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 ...KIKO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WHILE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 124.4W ABOUT 1020 MI...1640 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Kiko was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 124.4 West. Kiko is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h). A west-southwestward motion is forecast to occur on Tuesday and early Wednesday, followed by a turn back to the west or west-northwest later in the week. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued slow weakening is expected through Tuesday, and Kiko is expected to become a tropical storm during that time. Little change in strength is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Hurricane Kiko Forecast Advisory Number 19 Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 170233 TCMEP3 HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 17/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 75SW 100NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 124.4W AT 17/0300Z AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 124.2W FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 124.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Hurricane Kiko Forecast Discussion Number 19 Issued at 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 170234 TCDEP3 Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019 800 PM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019 Kiko continues to gradually lose strength. Satellite images show a less organized central dense overcast feature with no evidence of an eye. There is a sharp edge in the convective pattern on the north side of the system, suggestive of continued northerly wind shear. The initial wind speed is lowered to 75 kt, which is near the high end of the latest satellite intensity estimates. Kiko remains a very compact system with its tropical-storm-force winds and rain bands extending only about 50 n mi from the center. Additional weakening seems likely during the next 24 hours due to the continued effects of northerly shear, dry air, and marginally warm SSTs, and the NHC forecast shows Kiko falling below hurricane intensity during that time. The models show Kiko re-strengthening a little or maintaining its intensity on Wednesday and Thursday as it moves over slightly warmer waters and into a region of lower shear. However, weakening should resume by the end of the week when the cyclone moves into a less favorable atmospheric environment. The NHC intensity forecast follows the trend of the guidance and is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids. Kiko continues to only crawl westward in relatively weak steering currents. A ridge building to the northwest of Kiko over the central Pacific is forecast to steer the cyclone west-southwestward on Tuesday and Wednesday. After that time, the ridge is expected to weaken allowing Kiko to turn westward or west-northwestward later this week, followed by another turn to the southwest by the end of the forecast period. Regardless of the details of the track forecast, the bottom line is that Kiko is expected to continue its slow trek for several more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 17.2N 124.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 17.0N 124.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 16.7N 125.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 16.5N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 16.6N 128.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 17.2N 129.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 17.7N 130.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 17.2N 132.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Hurricane Kiko Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19 Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 170233 PWSEP3 HURRICANE KIKO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132019 0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE KIKO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 125W 34 1 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) 3(17) X(17) 1(18) 20N 125W 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 25(34) 3(37) 1(38) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 7(21) 2(23) 20N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Hurricane Kiko Graphics Hurricane Kiko 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 02:45:49 GMT

    Hurricane Kiko 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2019 03:31:55 GMT ]]>