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Advisories - Atlantic


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 220520
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Sebastien, located several hundred miles northeast of the
northern Leeward Islands.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Sebastien (AT5/AL202019) ...SEBASTIEN NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Nov 22 the center of Sebastien was located near 24.8, -57.0 with movement ENE at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.

Tropical Storm Sebastien

  • Tropical Storm Sebastien Public Advisory Number 12 Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 000 WTNT35 KNHC 220834 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Sebastien Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 ...SEBASTIEN NO LONGER EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 57.0W ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Sebastien was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 57.0 West. Sebastien is moving toward the east-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). An east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and Sebastien is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Advisory Number 12 Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 000 WTNT25 KNHC 220833 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0900 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 57.0W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT.......120NE 140SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 57.0W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 57.3W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.0N 54.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.2N 51.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 28.7N 49.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 110SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.0N 46.2W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.3N 38.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 57.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Sebastien Forecast Discussion Number 12 Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 220834 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Sebastien Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL202019 500 AM AST Fri Nov 22 2019 Sebastien has become less organized this morning. Strong southwesterly vertical wind shear of about 40 kt and dry air have caused the low-level center of the storm to become exposed to the southwest of the main area of deep convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt, based on the earlier ASCAT data, but this is a little above the latest Dvorak estimates and could be generous. The center of Sebastien has turned more to the right than expected, with the initial motion estimated to be 065/13 kt. The models have changed significantly this cycle, and now show a much slower forward motion to the northeast during the next few days. This change appears to be connected to a more vertically shallow system that moves in the lower-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been adjusted considerably slower and a little to the right of the previous one, but it still is faster than nearly all of the typically reliable models. Future adjustments will likely be made if the model trend continues. It no longer appears that Sebastien will strengthen. In fact, all of the intensity guidance now suggests that the storm will gradually weaken during the next few days as Sebastien remains in strong wind shear conditions and moves over progressively cooler waters. In addition, the model guidance has finally come into agreement that Sebastien will not merge with the nearby cold front. Instead, the cyclone is expected to move ahead of the weakening front and become a non-convective post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days, or less, when it moves over SSTs below 22 C. As mentioned in the previous discussion, NHC and the models have had a challenging time figuring out when Sebastien would lose its tropical characteristics, and we have held the transition timing steady at 48 hours for a while. Although there is still uncertainty, the models are in better agreement in the timing of this transition. This intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one to come into better agreement with the latest models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 24.8N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 26.0N 54.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 27.2N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 28.7N 49.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 30.0N 46.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 25/0600Z 33.3N 38.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Sebastien Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12 Issued at 0900 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 000 FONT15 KNHC 220834 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202019 0900 UTC FRI NOV 22 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM SEBASTIEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Sebastien Graphics Tropical Storm Sebastien 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 08:35:39 GMT

    Tropical Storm Sebastien 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 22 Nov 2019 09:24:17 GMT ]]>

Advisories - Eastern Pacific

NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 220520
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1000 PM PST Thu Nov 21 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


There are no tropical cyclones at this time.
No tropical cyclones as of Fri, 22 Nov 2019 09:24:27 GMT